Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 4.416507 5.216994 6.103401 7.155233 8.366671 9.715468 11.328112
2025-06-22 3.168307 4.232260 5.541073 7.257587 9.436091 12.094112 15.566273
2025-06-29 2.370214 3.521444 5.070606 7.279563 10.314781 14.300166 19.882298
2025-07-06 1.831350 2.989101 4.674108 7.255548 11.048202 16.340708 24.188538
2025-07-13 1.605348 2.836626 4.749900 7.859298 12.682379 19.748515 30.709194
2025-07-20 1.361155 2.592169 4.625746 8.115629 13.803159 22.509090 36.566913
2025-07-27 1.181529 2.410675 4.557728 8.427714 15.018636 25.504954 43.042931
2025-08-03 0.992867 2.168538 4.337584 8.437544 15.721053 27.742331 48.523642
2025-08-10 0.803840 1.881417 3.981939 8.144747 15.853736 29.041180 52.580886
2025-08-17 0.641631 1.609723 3.602974 7.741396 15.721736 29.853485 55.865394
2025-08-24 0.539034 1.441706 3.395547 7.626512 16.086438 31.534549 60.750402
2025-08-31 0.458452 1.304558 3.226007 7.556693 16.516893 33.355230 66.012684
2025-09-07 0.422715 1.271009 3.280753 7.971751 17.969334 37.227914 75.394489
2025-09-14 0.366950 1.173011 3.173961 8.026516 18.706149 39.834526 82.686897
2025-09-21 0.316654 1.076533 3.052727 8.029860 19.334274 42.287108 89.895200
2025-09-28 0.272285 0.984596 2.924731 7.996266 19.875023 44.609504 97.035346
2025-10-05 0.264549 1.001241 3.076972 8.651893 22.003416 50.312834 111.252695
2025-10-12 0.241312 0.962729 3.076115 8.930189 23.308302 54.423913 122.580763
2025-10-19 0.222745 0.934611 3.098551 9.269758 24.789183 59.020834 135.225308
2025-10-26 0.195477 0.868308 3.000185 9.280325 25.492111 62.009077 144.755137
2025-11-02 0.162717 0.771154 2.791180 8.961357 25.358118 63.156592 150.490903
2025-11-09 0.132303 0.671774 2.553223 8.521838 24.867422 63.457876 154.421924
2025-11-16 0.113629 0.613235 2.432453 8.396614 25.159443 65.553335 162.407391